International law was always and will always be fragile and doubtful regarding its effectiveness because countries pull in different directions especially nowadays. There is a lack of interest in enforcing international law and it is getting worse. There is a lack of excellence in terms of cohesiveness and collaboration internationally.
This leaves the door open for the more pragmatic solution of dominant force while ignoring legal niceties. This is further supported by what appears to be happening in this era: the acceptance of autocracies. The fading of democracy. The ineffectiveness of NATO will be proved when called upon to act.
Putin is one example in invading Ukraine and it is surprising that Europe supported Ukraine in their fight against the aggressor. The motivation is probably to protect themselves rather than doing the morally right thing.
Trump has taken a page out of the Putin playbook and in effect invaded Venezuela to abduct/kidnap Nicolás Maduro and run the country (he declared) until there is a judicious transition. He has removed Maduro to secure the massive oil reserves in Venezuela (the largest in the world) for America’s benefit (and probably his personal profit). Trump wants Venezuela to be a sort of annexed 51st oil producing state.
He is in breach of international law in several ways I suspect but nothing will be done about it. As I say, dominant force trumps (excuse the pun) a legal approach. That is the modern way.
Now other countries will be anxious about being invaded by Trump’s America. And I suspect that President Xi Jinping may be provoked to take this opportunity to invade Taiwan.
America will have to defend Taiwan which will start a kind of world war. There is a breakdown in the world order which is glued together by international law and treaties.
Treaties almost count for nothing as they are words in paper. What do you do if a country does not stick to a treaty? Not much you can do.
Trumps pragmatic and bold abduction of the criminal Maduro will loosen further the glue that keeps international relations on an even keel.
Expect more fragility in world relations. Expect more uncertainty. More stress for the common man trying to make a living. More stress for the kids who feel it more than adults think. More anxiety in countries such as Cuba, a failed economy on America’s doorstep.
Putin is upset by Trump’s abduction of Maduro because Maduro was matey with Putin. Dictators stick together for strength and moral support. They did deals.
This development may benefit Ukraine as Trump has been too friendly with Putin as he wants to do a deal with him in carving up Ukraine’s resources. Their friendship has been an obstacle to America’s attempts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.
With the friendship fractured Putin may annoy Trump leading to Trump being harder on Putin in terms of sanctions against Russia. This may stop Russia’s continual attacks on Ukraine.
But the bottom line is that Trump’s behaviour vis-à-vis Maduro and Venezuela has created a platform for world disorder going forward.
The still, boring and quiet days of the 1980s and ’90s are a distant past. We are probably heading to a world war of some sort. In some ways we are not far from it already if we count Russia’s hybrid war as genuine war which is really is.
More: Putin’s War: A Slow March into Strategic Obsolescence
Jacob Rees-Mogg is a person who I respect for his abilities, his knowledge, his knowledge of history, politics, law, economics and logical thinking. He very nicely and competently analyses whether Donald Trump’s abduction or kidnapping of the president of Venezuela was legal or illegal. He declares after much analysis that it was “licit” as opposed to illicit meaning it’s legal and as I recall having watched the video a few days ago the argument is that Nicolas Maduro was not a legitimate leader of Venezuela. He was in breach of the constitution of his country because he held fraudulent elections. This means that he was not protected with immunity as a leader of a foreign country. In addition he was committing crimes against America in the importation of drugs. It’s alleged that he is the head of a drug organisation. And he was therefore damaging the United States and Trump’s argument is that he was defending his country. The jury’s out strictly speaking on whether it was or wasn’t legal but I would trust in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s argument below.
