We are going to see the demise of many established websites especially those which are reliant on staff to write content. They have serious overheads compared to one-man bands. All website owners are under serious threat from two sources: AI and the search engines.
It’ll get worse. I don’t see a hopeful future for hundreds of thousands of relatively small established websites if they are dependent on advertising revenue. And even if they are not dependent on advertising revenue the owners will become demotivated by reducing visitor numbers and eventually decide to shut up shop.
AI – artificial intelligence
AI chat platforms such as Poe and Chat GPT (Open AI) fetch their information from the internet. Tons of quality content is fed into these AI computers. The information comes from content websites. They are not up to date as Poe always tells me that it only has information to 2021 but it is very powerful.
Whereas in the past the search engines produced lists of websites to provide the searched-for information in articles, they now encourage the use of AI question and answer platforms. This takes traffic from websites. The information from those websites is channeled through the AI platforms.
It has become very serious for many websites. It seems to me that many are on a losing wicket to use a cricketing term. In the long-term they will lose and eventually close. At that point the big dominant websites will occupy the internet. It’ll be a trimming of the internet which is probably what the big search engine want to make it more manageable.
Open AI, the owner of ChatGPT, achieved revenue of $1.6 billion in 2023 and are targeting $5 billion in 2024. Enormous amounts which far exceed those earned through advertising on even the large content websites.
The internet now is about dog eat dog. The big sharks are eating the small fish. There is almost no regulation of the internet. It is the wild west which is why there is no protection for small websites which provide diversity of opinion.
I can see a time coming when there will have to be regulation to avoid monopolies. Regulation is already happening with for example the UK’s Intellectual Property Office working on a code of practice. And there is the EU AI act which is yet to be published. But the law is always behind commerce.
The New York Times is suing OpenAI for training their AI computer with their articles without their permission or payment. In effect they claim that AI stole the information from their articles and they want compensation.
For the New York Times, it is about revenue and their long-term survival and the need to support independent journalism which is a vital element in holding governments to account.
AI is upsetting the news media ecosystem in a negative way. Things will settle eventually and the playing field will be fairer but the internet won’t return to the way it was; the easy days when relatively small independent websites could flourish. Now they struggle.
We respect the rights of content creators and owners and are committed to working with them to ensure they benefit from AI technology and new revenue models.
OpenAI spokesperson.
Search engines
Small and medium-sized websites are dependent on the search engines to find and list their websites. Bing has introduced their AI chat box platform as an option which takes traffic from sites. And they list websites in a way which also further limits hits on websites.
They answer questions within the Bing website in a drop-down menu based on the answers to queries provided by the many small and medium-sized websites providing quality content.
This means that the reader stays on the Bing website with less traffic from the content sites providing the information.
Bottom line
The bottom line is that the AI computers need information fed into them to function. It has to be of the best quality. Someone, somewhere, an expert in their field of operation, wrote a brilliant, enlightened article on a specialist area of knowledge.
That precious information is fed into an AI computer and regurgitated in perfect English. Yes, the AI computers write perfect English. It is in their own words but the content is someone else’s.
Licensing
It is proposed that their needs to be a licensing arrangment in which the AI guys buy a license from outlets such as the New York Times to use their information. Quantifying the amount to be paid will be fiendishly difficult. And I don’t think the cost of the license will ever be enough.
Some groups already have licensing agreements apparently such as Axel Springer, a German media company and Associated Press. They have agreements with Open AI.
Copyright
There are copyright issues to deal with too. The AI guys can’t just use someone elses information en masse without reference to intellectual property rights.
Distant future
“Information will be displayed, floating in the air … the web will appear in the real world, not just on glass screens.”
Mike Liebhold – a senior researcher at the Institute of the Future
